The FI R&R’s for January have now been calculated and show some considerable movement…

The Football Intelligence Ratings and Rankings takes the top teams in the English Premier League, picks their best eleven in a nominal 4-4-2 formation and rates and ranks the players against each other.

Rankings:

1. Chelsea (1.0)
2. Manchester United, +2 places (0.87, +0.15)
3. Tottenham Hotspur, -1 (0.55, -0.42)
=  Arsenal, 0 (0.55, -0.22)
=  Liverpool, +3 (0.55, -0.12)
6. Aston Villa, -1 (0.47, -0.19)
7. Manchester City, 0 (0.46, -0.15)

Ratings:

1. Chelsea, 0 (8.36, -0.19)
2. Manchester United, +1 (8.36, +0.09)
3. Arsenal, +1 (7.73, -0.45)
4. Tottenham Hotspur, -2 (7.55, -0.81)
=  Liverpool, +1 (7.55, -0.27)
6. Manchester City, 0 (7.09, -0.18)
7. Aston Villa, 0 (7.09, -0.18)

Conclusions:

In case you didn’t know, the top seven team in the Premier League are having a tough time of it.  Only Manchester United can legitimately say they improved through the month of January.

Chelsea remain the team to beat however their Rating has gone down primarily because of the loss of Ashley Cole.

Manchester United now rank second but rate level with Chelsea and would have gone ahead without Nani’s red card.

Tottenham Hotspur have been the biggest losers in January.  Spurning their chance to prove they are worthy of fourth place with an insipid display against Liverpool, failure to convert dominance into a victory over Aston Villa (which makes twice this season) and terrible displays in drawing at home to Hull and losing to Wolves.  They still rate 4th equal however and the R&R’s show three things; 1. they are heavily reliant and badly miss, Aaron Lennon. 2. Even without Lennon, they have been under-performing.  3. They still have a team capable of finishing fourth even if it is looking increasingly unlikely.

Arsenal, even with defeats with against Manchester United and Chelsea have improved their standing because their Ratings have gone down less than those around them.  This was born out in their victory against Liverpool.

Liverpool’s standing has improved slightly though their Rating has gone even with Dirk Kuyt’s purple patch.  While Manchester City, Villa and Spurs have been atrophying, Liverpool have remained almost the same despite the return of Steven Gerrard.  This suggests that the return of Fernando Torres will see them improve enough to overtake those around them.

Aston Villa’s defence is has improved slightly less than their attack has degraded.

Manchester City again show that their squad is stonger than any actual XI they can put out.

So from last month where Liverpool were out of the top four race and Manchester United were also vulnerable, the top three have shored up their positions with the race for the title becoming closer and Liverpool are right back in the hunt for fourth place.  The Ratings and Rankings suggest that should they get Torres back soon, they will qualify for the Champions League yet again.

Not exactly astounding insight there but the R&R’s also show that should that happen, the only excuse Tottenham, Villa and City will have is that they needlessly underperformed.

Let’s see how Football Intelligence did with our Saturday predictions…

Burnley 1- 2 Chelsea

Result: Correct

First Scorer: Wrong

Punt: Wrong

Score: Wrong

Birmingham 1 – 1 Spurs

Result: Correct

First Scorer: Wrong

Punt: Wrong

Score: Wrong

Fulham 0 – 2 Villa

Result: Correct

First Scorer: Wrong

Punt: Wrong

Score: Correct

Hull 2 – 2 Wolves

Result: Correct

First Scorer: Wrong

Punt: Wrong

Score: Correct

Liverpool 2 – 0 Bolton

Result: Correct

First Scorer: Wrong

Punt: Wrong

Score: Wrong

West Ham 0 – 0 Blackburn

Result: Wrong

First Scorer: Wrong

Punt: Wrong

Score: Wrong

Wigan 0 – 1 Everton

Result: Wrong

First Scorer: Wrong

Punt: Wrong

Score: Wrong

Overall, five correct results out of seven with two exact calls.  Reasonable, but we should be doing better.

Burney play Chelsea at Turf Moor ,30 January 2010, 5:30pm.

Burney end a run of five away games with the visit of Chelsea and will hope that they don’t add to their sole home defeat.  The crowd will be willing but no Premier League wins in eleven will have taken their toll.

Chelsea are in great form, even withouth Didier Drogba and Michael Essien and will have little problem breaking down the home team with Frank Lampard back in goalscoring form.

Best Bet – Away win.

First Scorer – Frank Lampard.

Worth a punt – Wade Elliott to get booked.

Prediction:

Burnley 0 – 3 Chelsea

Wigan Athletic play Everton at the DW Stadium, 30 January 2010, 3pm.

Everton are in good form without winning away since the start of November (against West Ham).  Wigan are all over the place, capable of great results and shockingly bad ones.  Most notably is their propensity for falling to pieces against the best teams, however Everton will have to play like it first.

Fail to do that and Wigan will get a vital home win.

Best Bet – Home win.

First Scorer – Louis Saha.

Worth a punt – Charles N’Zogbia assist.

Prediction:

Wigan Athletic 2 – 0 Everton

West Ham United play Blackburn Rovers at Upton Park, 30 January 2010, 3pm.

New ownership, financial stability (whatever that means), Carlton Cole back, Benni McCarthy in.  Blackburn however have not responded the way they should have done to Sam Allardyce’s methods.

They will try to out kick/punch West Ham all over the park and Scott Parker will be vital to the home team’s chances.

Compete and they will win, get bullied and Blackburn will have a chance however their away form and goalscoring is terrible.

Best Bet – Benni McCarthy to score.

First Scorer – Benni McCarthy.

Worth a punt – Scott Parker getting injured.

Prediction:

West Ham United 2 – 0 Blackburn Rovers

Liverpool play Bolton Wanderers at Anfield, 30 January 2010, 3pm.

Liverpool.  The least consistent team in the league and showing little sign of changing that yet still, no one would bet against Liverpool beating Bolton at home.  Of course we’d really want to!

In all likelihood though, with Steven Gerrard coming back to fitness they should have enough to scrape a 1-0 or beat up on a poor Bolton, 3-1.

But would you bet on it?

Best Bet – 1-0 home win.

First Scorer -Steven Gerrard.

Worth a punt – Liverpool’s winner coming after 60 minutes.

Prediction:

Liverpool 1 – 0 Bolton Wanderers

Hull City play Wolverhampton Wanderers at the KC Stadium, 30 January 2010, 3pm.

Basement battles are always tough to predict but given the Premier Leagues propensity for attack over caution, they often result in goals.

Who will score them is a real toss up though.  Neither team have a good defence or a good attack and both can expect a long, tough season.

With both teams needed a win and believing they can get it, a score draw is the most likely outcome.

Best Bet – Draw.

First Scorer – Geovanni.

Worth a punt – Kevin Doyle to score.

Prediction:

Hull City 2 – 2 Wolverhampton Wanderers

Fulham play Aston Villa at Craven Cottage, 30 January 2010, 3pm.

Strong at home plays strong away but there are signs that the former is on the wane.  Villa are struggling to score but are a team designed to soak up pressure and hit on the break.  Against a team like Fulham who attack at home, this is set up for an away win.

Best Bet – Away win.

First Scorer – James Milner.

Worth a punt – James Milner assist.

Prediction:

Fulham 0 – 2 Aston Villa

Birmingham City play Tottenham Hotspur at St. Andrews, 30 January 2010, 3pm.

Finally Birmingam have lost (3-0 away to Chelsea) and how they react will be interesting.  In all honesty though, an away loss to the league leaders is easy to to write off an we don’t expect Birmingham to be any less tough to play than they have been in their preview dozen or so games.

Scoring against Tottenham though may be problematic.  Indeed they are the sort of team who have both the defensive strength, midfield steel and attacking edge to go to St. Andrews and cause real problems.

Expect a tight game with Tottenham in the ascendancy.  The most likely result is a 0-0 with Tottenham the most likely to score.

Best Bet – No goals.

First Scorer – Peter Crouch.

Worth a punt – Lee Bowyer sent off.

Prediction:

Birmingham City 0 – 0 Tottenham Hotspur

Manchester City play Blackburn Rovers at Eastland, 11 January 2010, 8pm.

This should be a simple one to call – Blackburn are short of quality and inconsistent while Manchester City have great competition within the squad and a new manager they are trying to impress who has the advantage of his opposition not having seen him tactically.

Expect a solid, two or three goal performance from City with an outside chance of more.  The only real question is whether Blackburn will score.

Best Bet – Manchester City win

First Scorer – Craig Bellamy.

Worth a punt – Craig Bellamy hat-trick.

Prediction:

Manchester City 3 – 0 Blackburn Rovers