With the latest ignominy of losing to out-of-form, relegation candidates Wigan Athletic, Liverpool now stand not only on the precipice of being ousted from their perennial Champions League spot but a malaise that threatens to last a generation.

The troubles at Anfield run right the way through the club and show no sign of abating.  With the likes of Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur and particularly Manchester City better placed and playing better in the league, Liverpool’s grasp on their status as one of the elite clubs in England and Europe looks to have been terminally loosened.

The Owners

Most fans will point to the takeover of the club and the consequent saddling of debt to be the point where Liverpool entered its decline.  Certainly the siphoning off of revenue to pay for debt and interest repayments will have had an impact on their ability to compete financially, however another club – the one in Lancashire, you know the one – has been saddled with even more debt while still giving their manager money to spend with which they have won three league titles in a row.

The real problem with the owners is that no company can prosper when its decision makers do not act in concert.  For all the supposed evils of the Glazers, they have a company that is working towards common goals (even if one of those goals is debt repayment).  The same cannot be said of Liverpool and while there is such a schism at the very top of their management structure, their fortunes simple cannot improve.

The Manager

The man shouldering the lions share of the blame for the on-pitch decline is – and should probably always be – the manager.  Rafael Benitez does himself no favours however.  He is at best stilted and terse in his press conferences, sometimes his performances are farcical and other times a combination of both which actively undermine his team’s chances on the pitch.

In recent months, he has become more and more bizarre and it is looking that finally, the man who bought in practically the entire squad and has enjoyed the support of arguably the most loyal fanbase in football, has lost his grip on both.

Comments of corners being turned and reactions required are being duplicated and no longer having the desired effect.

And what is there to grasp hold of?  Liverpool are not even playing football that is fun to watch or imbued with any sense of ambition or flair.  Benitez has spent (and recouped) a huge amount of money yet his only real successes in the transfer market have been a goalkeeper, a striker with fitness problems, a defensive midfielder and a ball-playing midfielder who he sold to be replaced with a bench-warmer who is never fit (or it seems, good enough).

What is worse, many of the players who were bought in to make the team more adventurous have faded into obscurity almost immediately – where some managers improve players, Benitez almost uniformly, destroys them.

While he clearly manages to galvanise his team for the biggest games, the fixtures you would ordinarily expect them to win have huge question marks against them.

All the evidence points to Liverpool finishing outside the top four this season.  Indeed finishing above any of Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester City would be a surprise suggesting they will not have the distraction of any European football next season.

With his very vocal guarantee of a fourth place finish, the question is (and probably has been for some time) how the upper management can get rid of him.  Obviously the ideal would be for a club to buy him out of his contract, removing the managerial albatross and netting the club a profit.  Second best would be Benitez accepting he has reached the end of his tenure and taking either minimal or no, compensation.

Most likely of course will be a sacking followed by a protracted and expensive payout.

Worst of all, he stays.

The Players

Benitez has had five years to shape a squad to his desire yet it now comprises a mixture of the injury-prone, the ageing, the under performing and the overrated.

The players of genuine quality are Reina, Johnson, Agger, Mascherano, Gerrard and Torres.  Of these, only Reina and Mascherano have been consistently fit and playing this season.  Gerrard has had more injuries this season and has suffered an alarming dip in form.  For an all-action midfielder soon to turn 30, who relies on his energy levels so much, there is every chance that this dip in form could be permanent.  He has to decide whether to change his way of playing (and with it his position and the make up of the team) or to accept the waning of his influence.

Agger has played in 15 league games this season and has only once played more than 20.   At 25, time is on his side but if he wants to prove that he has the body to play an entire season, he had better prove it soon.

Torres whose stellar first season has been proceeded by a steady decline in output both in games played and goals scored per game and a steady increase in time spent injured.  How long he will remain at Liverpool without Champions League football or any real support from his team is a question they really don’t want to ask.

The problem for Liverpool has long been their creative reliance on Gerrard and Torres.  Now that one is in (probable) decline and both are suffering regularly from injuries, the squad simply doesn’t have the quality to cope.

In fact this current squad with so many regular injury worries, under-performers and transfer candidates (Torres, Mascherano) are arguably far weaker than any of the other teams going for fourth place.

One player they simply cannot rely on any more is their stalwart central defender Jamie Carragher whose passion has long been put into the shade by his decreasing pace (from a low starting point), increasingly suspect decision making and commonplace errors.

The Fans

Many clubs can lay claim to having great fans.  Newcastle United’s fans really do embody the full word, ‘fanatic’.  Tottenham’s fans give fantastic away support and fill their ground even on a cold evening for an early round, cup reply.  West Ham’s have put up with more disappointment than most of the league put together but still willingly turn up week in week out.

There is probably no set of fans more intelligent or loyal than those at Anfield, however.  They have put up with the poor results and terrible football months after life would have been made unbearable for Benitez at any other club.  but it has never been with the blind fervour that characterises other clubs; Newcastle support to the exclusion of rationality.  Spurs will never let their club settle for anything less than their scarcely met expectations.  But Liverpool supporters (and they are more that than they are fanatics) maintain a perspective that other fans can only muster after the act of winning and even then, only rarely.

The Anfield fan has a knowledge of football like no other; as a collective they instinctively know the immediate and long-term value of loyalty.  They support their players who have never performed in the hope that they will, one day.  They cheer their team in spirited defeat.  And it seems, regail their managers successes long after he has outlived his tenure.  In short, they are the fans any manager and player would want because they are just.

What is happening to their club from the owners to the players is far from just, and far from what the supporters deserve.  But this is football and it is business and the little man rarely gets what he deserves.  Such is Liverpool’s fate.

Without any prospect of a change at every level of the club, it is a fate that looks like being cemented for some considerable time.

Much has been written about John Terry and the impact his actions have had on his, wife, best friend, club and country and for the most part, he has been insulated from the criticism both by the bubble all footballers exist in and his lack of exposure to the public outside Chelsea’s biased and (in their display of contempt for Wayne Bridge), distasteful fans.

On that last point, it should be noted that there where many Chelsea fans who applauded Bridge and are having a hard time maintaining their support for the team’s captain, sadly however, they were the minority.

In recent days – particular in light of the farcically covered and unobserved non-handshake between Terry and Bridge – the argument has finally shifted to the perhaps the pure essence of the issue for the two people most involved; if they can’t play together, who should quit the team?

As we mentioned in this previous post, in any normal, morally-guided part of society it would be John Terry who would be forced to relinquish the favoured position.  So far that has not been the case and Wayne Bridge knowing this, felt he had no alternatiuve but to remove himself from selection.  Indeed had he sought to force Capello’s hand by privately telling him that he wants to be in the squad but cannot play while John Terry is included, the moral question that has little ambiguity outside the win-first mentality of football would have arisen then and not now.

Of course had Bridge done that, not only would Capello have felt pressure to remove a more important player from his squad in favour of a less important player but Bridge himself would have realised that as soon as it had come out that Terry’s withdrawal, or the pressure to remove Terry at came Bridge’s instigation, Bridge would have been in many fans eyes the prime reason for England’s likely failure at the World Cup.

The way it has now worked out is ideal for Bridge and perhaps slightly better for Capello as well – Bridge is absolved of blame for creating the pressure on Terry (as he should be) while highlighting the moral disparancy between football and the rest of the world while Capello can point to public pressure and outrage as another reason why John Terry might not merit a place in the squad.  That’s to go on top of his not being good enough, being out of form, being in the wrong frame of mind, upsetting his team mates, costing the squad a member and creating a massive distraction that shows no signs of abating a mere 100 days before the start of the tournament.

So the question remains; should the England fans boo Terry?  Are they in the mood to forgive for the greater good of the team and their chances of winning?

The clue perhaps comes from the presence of the story itself.  On the continent there is bafflement as to why England would undermine their chances of victory for something so trivial.  In England however we hold everyone to a higher standard – pious but true – especially those with the most responsibility and the most visual role models.

Accordingly, the England fans will let Terry know how they feel.  Were Bridge there, he would no doubt experience the polar opposite of what he so shamefully received at Stamford Bridge.  He won’t be there however and that fact will add to the expression of outrage and distaste that practically all football fans (and some, genuine Chelsea fans) feel.

Whether Terry can overcome that and recover his form remains to be seen.

Fourth place in the Premier League – and with it, Champions League football – has never been more keenly contested.  We take a look at each of the contenders and present the case for and against their claiming the final place at football’s richest table.  Following Liverpool, here is the case for Manchester City.

With their money, Manchester City are going to be a force in football come what may

To say Manchester City are a rich is a bit like saying that Portsmouth are in a spot of bother.  They have already spent more since their change of ownership than any other club and it is clear that the spending is not going to end there.  Indeed as soon as they can offer Champions League football, the level of player they will be able to attract will increase along with that spending.

One way or another, the near-limitlessly funded club are going to be regulars in the Champions League, they might as well sow up that position now.

The Counter:

The Premier League already has one club monopolising a Champions League place because of funding outside of their natural means, having a second can’t be good for a league that has unnaturally funded clubs through inconceivably rich benefactors (Chelsea, Manchester City) or inconceivably large debt (Manchester United, Liverpool) dominating those clubs who are managed within their means (Arsenal, Tottenham, Everton, Aston Villa).

It’s about time someone broke up the top four

Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool.  It is the same story every season – those four clubs are the most attractive for players because they can offer the highest wages and Champions League football.  Their reward is 20 to 30 million extra every season which in turns ensures they qualify for the Champions League.  This is demonstrably anti-competitive and creates a tiered structure in the league where 16 of the teams effectively have zero chance of actually winning the competition.  With their wealth and ambition, Manchester City have the best chance of breaking into, and ending this self-perpetuating cartel.

The counter:

There’s no counter for the basic argument – Manchester City replacing one of the existing top four (Liverpool probably).  However all it will do is to replace one team with another that has far greater resources to stay there.  Indeed Manchester City don’t need the Champions League money – they need to be in the competition to attract the best players.

City will also be able to challenge for the title

Why stop at breaking into the top four when you can break up the top two of Manchester United and Chelsea who have dominated the competition for the past five years?

The counter:

If they were to break into this top two at the expense of one team, it would almost certainly be Manchester United whose squad is surprisingly weak (for a team who have won the competition for the last three years).  So at the top of the game we would have two teams funded by private wealth and operating far above their natural means.

City will also be able to challenge for the Champions League

The more teams we have competing in the final stages of the Champions League, the better English football we be, the higher our coefficient will be, the better off we will all be.  Manchester City stand the best chance of the challengers for fourth place of competing with the best of Europe.

The counter:

Liverpool – and especially Benitez – have already proven that you need more than just a squad packed with quality to compete in the Champions League.  In fact Benitez has proven you don’t need a squad packed with quality at all…  Even Jose Mourinho who seems most likely to take over at City next season hasn’t been able to bring the Champions League at either Chelsea or Inter.  Liverpool have the experience, knowhow and track record to compete with the best of Europe.

Conclusion

Long-term, Manchester City are almost certain to nail down one of the four Champions League spaces and the remaining contenders will be competing for fourth with either Arsenal or Manchester United.

There is plenty of scope for short-term disruption of this plan however.  It is likely that City will not finish fourth this season because of all the teams around them, they have neither the best attack nor the best defence and their manager is under the most pressure (with maybe the exception of Benitez).  Assuming they don’t get fourth this season, another change of manager will be preceded by another round of £100m+ spending on players who are motivated more by money than achievement or glory.

Hence the importance of City bringing in Jose Mourinho – a coach of such renown that players may move there simply to play with him (and the near-guarantee of future success).

As for this season, maybe it would be nice for a team whose long-term membership of the hallowed top four is far less than guaranteed to have a chance to pit their wits against the best Europe has to offer.

Wayne Bridge has decided that he cannot be in the same team as John Terry.  This probably shouldn’t come as any surprise – he’s clearly devastated by recent events, not just the loss of his friend and the respect of his child’s mother but through no fault of his own, every away match he plays in will come with ridicule he simply doesn’t deserve.

On the face of it, this is the best thing for England.  Bridge has never really performed that well for his country, often looking error-prone (which is not unusual in this England team) and should, as we’re told  Ashley Cole be fit in time, he would not have played anyway.

It gives a chance for a couple of young, promising players in Stephen Warnock and Leighton Baines to stake their claim and give Capello just enough time to decide whether they have the mentality for international football should they be called upon.

Make no mistake, this is a brave decision by Bridge.  He has already lost more than anyone else in this affair – a friend, the mother to his child, self-respect, respect of away fans and now his chance at an international career.

It’s odd to think that in other areas of life, it would be the one who committed the sin that would be punished – Terry would be the one obliged step down from the national team – but in football, authority of winning exceeds any moral imperative.

By ending his international career now, Bridge has stifled the moral question which was never really addressed by the media at large and had yet to be raised amongst the players in the England team.

Only Wayne Bridge or John Terry could have ended the potential for moral conflict within the squad and for this, we should thank Wayne Bridge.

It is our opinion that winning the Premier League title for the last three seasons represents the greatest achievement of Sir Alex Ferguson’s incredible career, eclipsing even 1999’s thrilling treble.

The achievement is made greater in part because of the quality of the competition but primarily because we believe that this current squad is one of the worst Ferguson has had.

The three victories were established primarily on two factors; a superb defence and a one-man attack.  This season they have neither and yet incredibly are still in touch of the Premier League title.

Let’s compare this current crop with the one that ruled the footballing world in 1999:

Goalkeeper

1999 – Peter Schmeichel, Mark Bosnich

In the top three goalkeepers of his era and at the height of his powers in 1999.  Schmeichel left at the end of the season and has never really been replaced.  Bosnich was superb for Aston Villa but never solidified his place at Old Trafford.

2010 – Edwin van der Sar, Ben Foster

Having spent four seasons in obscurity at Fulham, van der Saar finally joined a team that deserved his talents in 2005.  He is now 39 and both past his best as well as the best Manchester United have.  Ben Foster, with eleven appearances for United in five years has all the hallmarks of many before him – not making the grade.  He certainly has the talent but like so many others that talent is garnished with regular, critical errors.

Score: 1999 1 – 0 2010 (Schmeichel for ability, consistency, presence and match-winning).

Left-back

1999 – Dennis Irwin, Phil Neville

Scorer of 31 goals in 453 appearances, Dennis Irwin is a legend.  Consistently superb in defence, performed in big matches and was a threat both at freekicks and penalties.  Phil Neville was an able and adaptable backup who now plays for Everton.

2010 – Patrice Evra, Fabio

Evra is one of Ferguson’s better buys in recent years.  Strong in attack, solid in defence and plays almost every match.  He is critical to the United defence as an ever-present, ever-reliable presence.  Fabio, like his brother is talented, more so in attack, but has yet to prove himself in the first team.

Score: 1999 2 – 0 2010 (Irwin for goals and consistency).

We at FI already had them down as outsiders but with the news that their one, truly world class player Ashley Cole has broken his ankle, England’s chances of winning the World Cup are practically over.

With doubts over form and fitness in almost every position, age or inexperience, England’s most potent weapon will be at the side of the pitch, not on it.  But even a manager as great as Fabio Capello can only work with what he has at his disposal.  Sadly, it pales in comparison with the real contenders for the World Cup.

Goalkeeper

We don’t even know who this will be.  Perhaps David James if he is playing regularly, though this will be for a relegated team who are likely to also be in administration.  They might even be liquidated which means James won’t even have a club to play for.  Even if fit, playing and playing at his best, James is still prone to create a chance or two for the opposition.  Joe Hart is probably the next best alternative (since Capello has ignored the experienced Paul Robinson).  Number of caps?  One.

Leftback

With the world’s best in the position out for around three months, it is highly unlikely he will be fit enough to play like it in South Africa.  The obvious alternative (i.e. the next English leftback) is Wayne Bridge.  Bridge and Terry.  Well at least it will be a fun sideshow though how it can have anything other than a negative effect on the team, I don’t know.  Alternatives include Leighton Baines (no caps), Stephen Warnock (one cap) and James Milner – a winger/attacking midfielder who is probably going to be needed further up the pitch (see below).

Rightback

Glen Johnson, hewn from a similarly calamitous stone as David James, is currently injured with knee ligament damage.  He should be fit enough in time but while he is decent in attack, defensively he is very suspect.  But that’s okay because of the quality we have at…

Centrebacks

John Terry.  All personal issues aside (which he seems to do himself with apparent ease), John Terry is far from world class when playing for his country.  Slow, indecisive and prone to errors (that makes three in the back five) he is the second best we have only because of the twin deaths of Ledley King’s knees and Jonathan Woodgate’s entire body.

Rio Ferdinand.  Excellent player, always performs when it counts.  Has played six league games this season because of a chronic back problem which followed a bout of bad form.  May or may not be fit, may or may not be in form.

The alternatives of Upson and Lescott have both proven themselves to be below international standard.  That leaves Michael Dawson then.

Left wing

Much like the goalkeeper, it’s hard to say who will actually play.  Joe Cole if he’s fit may though he’s getting little playing time at Ancelotti’s Chelsea.  Currently he has a knee injury.  Frank Lampard whose performances this season have dipped alarmingly may play on the left.  Manchester City’s new signing Adam Johnson might get a chance to shine though he has yet to play for the senior team.  Aaron Lennon can play on the left wing, too but…

Right wing

Aaron Lennon is the man in possession and was, until his groin injury, one of the only players to be performing at a world class level.  But injured, he is.  While he should be back in time and should be in form, too much will be relying on his speedy heels and brilliant first touch.  He and a fit Johnson behind him would be our most potent, creative weapons.  Alternatives include the excellent Milner, a very, very, very late run by David Bentley and the practically forgotten, Theo Walcott.  Oh and David Beckham.

Defensive midfielder

Hobson’s Choice here; Gareth Barry, assuming he’s fit.  The glue that has held the England team together for a number of years though more because he plays the position rather than someone who plays the position well.  In 2006 we had Owen Hargreaves who was better than Barry at breaking up the play (and whose knees are in a worse condition than Ledley King’s), in 2002 we had Nicky Butt who made the Team of the Tournament.  As a defensive midfielder, Barry is not in their class.

Attacking midfielder

Steven Gerrard.  Consistently given the position ahead of the more deserving Frank Lampard, time and again Gerrard has failed to make the most of the creative freedom the position affords.  I can’t think of a player with greater discrepancy between their club and country form.  However this season his club form has dipped as well, possibly signalling the beginning of his decline as an all-action force in midfield.

Support striker

Uhh.  Emile Heskey is injured and has been for a lot of the season.  Even when fit and in form he still scores only when the moon is blue.  As Ron Atkinson once said, “there’s not a lot of demand for non-goalscoring strikers, Clive”.  Alternatives; Peter Crouch – in anonymous form for Tottenham but a reasonable performer for his country.  Carlton Cole  (six caps, no goals) has had injury problems this season and is yet to prove himself, Jermain Defoe (38 caps, 11 goals) will not provide height and with wingers (and Beckham) we lose an attacking dimension.  If Heskey is not playing though, Defoe will have to.

Striker

Wayne Rooney.  In great form and currently fit.  World Cups are not won by a single player however and even though he is very, very good, Rooney cannot carry a team without the rest of it supporting him.  Defoe doesn’t support.  Lampard, Cole and Gerrard all have big question marks over them.  Barry is defensive.  The leftback is going to be an unknown, untried.  If Lennon is fit, it will be down to him and him alone to support Rooney.  Good thing he sorted out that troublesome ‘final ball’ problem then.

In an ideal world, this would be my first eleven:

David James

Glen Johnson – Rio Ferdinand – Ledley King – Ashley Cole

Aaron Lennon – Owen Hargreaves – Frank Lampard – James Milner

Emile Heskey – Wayne Rooney

Could it win the World Cup?  Excellent defence, excellent attack from a strong midfield with no player being carried (sorry, Gerrard fans).   And a complimentary, experienced attacking partnership.  So maybe.  Together with the best manager in the world we’d have a chance.

Instead that manager will work with this:

David James (f, p, m)

Glen Johnson (i) – Rio Ferdinand (i) – John Terry (p, m) – Wayne Bridge (f, p, m)

Aaron Lennon (i) – Gareth Barry – Steven Gerrard (p) – Joe Cole (i)

Jermain Defoe – Wayne Rooney

You tell me; can we win it with this?  A World Cup with Brazil, Italy and Spain?

This guest post by Davey J is a work of fiction.   It is here to entertain and because Dave bugged me for ages to let him write something for FI.

INTERNAL: Casa del Terry

A cabal of a dozen or so highly paid PR advisors jostle and strut around a cavernous room containing two snooker tables, a 200 inch projection TV, fake stuffed black bear and a huge, circular Chelsea FC rug in the middle. It is lit by a huge, crystal chandelier.  The room is basking in the afterglow of achievement.  In the middle stands a small man in a sharp suit, one arm holding a mobile phone to his ear, the mobile in his other hand on hold.  He listens passively, with a small, knowing smirk on his waxy features.  Suddenly the cabal freezes, heads turn to the door fifty feet away that has flung open.

John Terry enters his games room.

Footsteps resonate in quick time as he strides to the centre of the room.

Waxy – Yep, yep, gotta go. Laters.

Presses something on the held phone and holds it up to his other ear.

Waxy – Yep, yep, gotta go. Laters.

Terry comes to a halt before the gaggle and stares straight at Waxy.

Terry – So fellas… you got something?

Waxy’s smirk becomes a grin.

Terry – You got something!

Waxy holds his right arm above his shoulder and instantly a sheet of paper is thrust into it.

Waxy – We got something.

Terry reaches forward and seizes the paper before Waxy can offer it.  His grin doesn’t change.

Waxy – It’s a turkey shoot JT, all you have to do is commit those two paragraphs to memory and when the time comes, give them to Fab Cap, both barrels.  We’ve distilled the essence of every pro-you argument, discredited every anti argument into what you have in your hands.  We’ve had Team Terry on every talkshow, called in every favour with the press, talked up the footballing issue, talked down the moral issue.  With what you are going to say to Capello, I think we’re home and dry.

Waxy’s grin grows, his lips part to show a full set of sharp teeth.

Terry – This is… wait what’s this word?

Waxy tilts his head to JT’s perspective.

Waxy – That says “regret”.

Terry – Ahh.  And this one?

Waxy – “Sincere”.  So JT, let’s talk delivery.  How you give this to Capello is important.  You gotta show him who the top dog is, don’t let him dictate.  Before you go in, take a deep breath, shoulders back, stride confidently into the office.  Look him in the eye and before he has a chance to offer you a seat, you deliver that statement to him and let him know who’s in charge.

A small ripple of amused approval bubbles through the assembled.

Waxy -  I almost feel sorry for him.

The smile brilliant, the eyes betraying pleasure in another’s future misfortune.

Terry – Okay, so all I have to do is learn these two paragraphs, walk in there and I’m home free?

Waxy – Home free, captain of the World Cup winners.

INTERNAL:  The reception at Wembley Stadium offices.  20 minutes later.

The receptionist, Ellie sits bolt upright, focused on her computer monitor where the conversion of badly scrawled notes is appearing.  John Terry walks to her desk.

Ellie – Yes sir, how may I help you?

Terry – I’m hear to see Fabio, what do you think?

A raised eyebrow.

Ellie – Name?

Terry – I… John Terry.

Ellie – Of course Mister Terry.  Please take a seat, Mister Capello will see you shortly.

As Terry sits down he removes a crumpled sheet of paper from his back pocket and stares intently at it.

Ten minutes pass, Terry, focusing on his piece of paper barely notices.

Ellie – Mister Terry?  Mister Capello is ready to see you now.  Please go right in.

Terry, rising slowly takes one last look at his piece of paper before stuffing it back in his pocket.  He walks up to the door marked “Fabio Capello – England Manager”, takes a deep breath, turns the handle and enters.

Fabio Capello sits behind a small, white desk, empty except for a black telephone.  He is bolt upright, one hand palm down on the desk, the other beneath the desk.  His face holds no expression.

Terry, shoulders back, standing tall in the middle of the room exhales slowly and begins.

Terry – Fabio, I won’t sit down if that’s okay, I have something to…

The only chair in the room is being used by Fabio Capello.  The telephone is unplugged.

Terry – I…

He senses something is wrong but can’t quite tell what it is.  Capello remains motionless.  Flustered, Terry thrusts his hand into his pocket and withdraws the piece of paper.

Terry – “F- F- Fabio.  By now you have witnessed the terrible assassination of my charact-”

Capello raises his hand.

Capello – You must say nothing more John Terry.  Please, do exactly what I say.  Turn round.

Terry looks confused as he turns round, his back now to Capello.  He now realises what is wrong; the room is completely empty.  No file cabinets, no computer, no pictures on the wall.  No windows.  The only furnishing in the room is a large, transparent plastic sheet layed out over the cheap grey carpet.  He is standing exactly in the middle of it.

Terry – What… what’s going o-

Capello – Shh, John Terry.  Kneel.

He kneels.  Terry hears the sound of a chair being pushed back against cheap carpet.  Footsteps approach with a soft crumpling noise.  His heart is in his ears now.  Shoulders trembling, scared to look up or turn round.  Out of the corner of his eye he sees a pair of Italian loafers appear.

The noise was of the plastic bags that cover the loafers.

Terry – Oh no.  Please, no-

Something hard and cold presses against the side of his head.  He shuts his eyes and moans softly.

Capello – Arrivederci, John Terry.

The former England captain slumps onto the plastic sheet, one hand still grasping a crumpled piece of paper.

Capello – Ellie, get me Rio Ferdinand.  And send a basket of fruit to Mrs. Terry.

This article originally appeared on Football Intelligence’s previous site and is reposted for this week’s FA Cup Third round ties.

This weekend was the third round of the oldest club competition of all; The FA Cup. 731 teams entered and while not all will expect to grace the final, many will have harboured dreams of a prize third round tie with a Premiership team.

However with 16 of the last 19 and 10 out of the last 10 winners of the competition coming from Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea, much like the country’s top league, the Cup is fast becoming (or long-since became) the sole preserve of the self-perpetuating elite.

Because of this; the ease at which the very top clubs can advance to the final stages (assuming they avoid each other) the diminishing belief that any club other than the obvious are incapable of winning the competition, can we really say that the ‘magic’ of the cup is anything other than hype designed to maintain the proud standing of this fading competition?

After all, hype in English football is not exactly a commodity in short supply…

Saturday saw four Premiership teams lose to lower league opposition;

Blackburn 1 – 4 Coventry

Bolton 0 – 1 Sheffield United

Everton 0 – 1 Oldham

Huddersfield 2 – 1 Birmingham

All hail the minnow then. However closer scrutiny shows a more worrying trend.

Bolton, 14th in the Premiership played Coventry 16th in the league below. Gary Megson’s side stand on a precipice; while Nicholas Anelka stays, they can assure themselves of Premiership survival, should he go then they will be in genuine trouble. Megson’s answer; rest his best team for the Premiership.

Here is the eleven he played yesterday; Al Habsi, Hunt, Andrew O’Brien, Michalik, Cid, Guthrie, Joey O’Brien, Cohen, Giannakopoulos, Diouf, Braaten.

Of those only Giannakopoulos, O’Brien and Diouf could be considered first team players. The message to the other eight is simple; you are not first team players, this is not an important match.

Everton are sixth in the Premiership and are genuinely one of the top teams outside of the obvious. Strong defence and defensive squad, decent attack and exceptional midfield as good as they are, the quality of their play revolves around two players; Cahill and Arteta. The team Moyes put out to play Oldham was;

Wessels, Hibbert, Stubbs, Jagielka, Baines, Pienaar, Gravesen, Carsley, McFadden, Johnson, Vaughan.

Not a bad team. However look at the missing players; Howard, Neville, Yobo, Lescott, Osman, Yakubu and crucially, Cahill and Arteta.

Birmingham are 16th in the league and are bedding in their new manager, Alex McLeish. There is no doubt that the big prize for them is Premiership football next season although they did play a ’strong’ team.

Of course this crop of Birmingham players seem to have bought in as an attempt to prove right the saying ‘Championship players give you Championship football’.

Finally there was Blackburn, a team mired in a poor run of form although with players like McCarthy, Bentley, Friedel, Samba and Tugay it would be harsh to say that this was anything other than a first team. Coventry, well-drilled by the shrewd (manager, not in picking his jobs) Ian Dowie perhaps then performed the one genuine shock both in the result and margin of victory.

Sunday’s matches saw only one real surprise, Luton Town holding Liverpool to a 1-1 draw. A superb result for Luton not least for gaining parity with Liverpool but for a club in administration the home and away income could prove vital to them.

Liverpool however who are gradually learning to become crack shots at shooting themselves in the foot yet again embarrassed themselves both in team selection and in their ability to play nothing other than grinding, ineffective football. Still, it would be hard to find someone who would bet against them winning the replay.

Meanwhile, Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea all won without conceding a goal.

The best the minnows can hope for these days is to beat a decent Premiership club’s second team. Years from now Luton’s superb draw against (a predictably depleted) Liverpool will be remembered for the money they earned from the two ties. Should they gloriously win the replay it will always be prefaced by the quality of the team Liverpool played with.

But such cynicism is not limited to the Premiership. Hull, fighting for the Championship playoff places travelled to Plymouth and made seven changes (they lost).

While the grand prize becomes ever more unattainable and the definition of a ‘cup shock’ diminishes to a ‘mild surprise’ and the mightiest teams only ever lose to themselves, the ‘magic’ of the cup recedes to the quaint experience of visiting grounds of the poor and undernourished and dreams of FA Cup glory are replaced with the hope of some sort of intravenous shot of money.

On the radio the pundits talk of how it gives them an opportunity to see real football, hotbeds of the game, where it all begins, the real beating heart of football; it’s a rap artist winding down the window of his stretched hummer to look at the streets he pretends to sing about on the way to his kitsch-filled Beverley Hills mansion.

The FA Cup is now little more than a payday lottery for most, time to experiment for some and acceptable consolation prize for four.

Something even the press hype-machine are unable to reverse.

Winning the FA Cup is worth £1m and a place in the paupers European competition (worth maybe another five or six million).

Finishing above 18th in the Premiership is worth something like £30m. Finishing in the top four could be worth another £20m.

Given this enormous disparity and the belief that only the elite can actually win the FA Cup, those safe in the Premiership seek to save their best players to improve their league position. Those close to the top four save their best players to try and get into the Champions League. Those struggling to stay in the Premiership save their best players to maintain their top flight status. Those in the top four use it as a chance to blood their young players and rest their best.

Every year the footballing regality are led reluctantly by the hand to the commoners zoo to see how the paupers live. Sometimes through their own ignorance or hubris they put their hand through the gaps in the fence and are bitten, but in the end there is never any doubt which side of the cage each protagonist is on.

For the Cup to have any real magic, the smallest teams not only need to play the big ones but the best teams of the big clubs. The clubs who might not win the league have to believe that a good cup run can end in a trophy and not just a quarter or semi final.

Most of all, if the FA Cup is ever to be the magical, greatest domestic club competition again it cannot be about money and inconvenience but hope, glory and lifting the trophy.

The role of the referee in soccer is something that has plagued the game for a long time. It is not the quality of the referees because at least in the UK you have to assume that the quality is same or better since the professional era, however with incredible financial growth comes an associated increase in pressure amongst everyone involved. You add money and you increase the penalty for failure.

Consequently fans, players, managers and owners place winning ahead of all other considerations (since at the moment, prize money is not given for attractive play or gentlemanly conduct). Indeed given the scale of finance in the game now, not only is winning the number one priority, it is the only priority.

Players and managers though can handle it. They have to otherwise they are replaced and it is not like they aren’t handsomely remunerated for it. Every facet of a Premiership football club is performance driven and high-pressure. The only weak link in the football product chain is the referee; a man paid less than many players earn in a week scrutinised by television pundits, news reporters and fans often for making decisions in a split second that are reviewed in multi angle slow motion afterwards.

While I will put my head on the line and say that soccer is ‘best’ sport in the world (reasons in another article perhaps) there is no other sport where the decisions of the rule-enforcers are deemed to have such an impact on the outcome of individual games.
Comparisons with American sports are interesting. The first thing to notice is the number of refrees; in the NFL (American Football) there is a seven-official system which compartmentalises decision making. Take for example this definition,

“You are primarily responsible for the Tackle on the HL side of the field, the Passer, and the Kicker/Holder. Your primary calls are action by or against that Tackle, action by or against the Passer (illegal forward pass, roughing the passer, pass vs. fumble), and action by or against the kicker/holder (roughing/running into).”

So his “Primary Responsibility” is largely to watch for fouls (holding, visor-grabbing etc.) and minor rule infringements which are localised in the area of the two lines where the referee is located. And this makes sense, these are the calls that the referee can make clearly. When the Quarterback throws the ball 30 yards downfield, another referee rules further down the pitch from the side lines to judge distance and infringements.

I imagine that American Football realised long ago that one referee could not officiate over a whole game (since you are unlikely to be able to spot every foul and infringement), so they dedicate referees to particular areas of the game, enabling each to concentrate more on getting their fewer decisions correct. They compartmentalised their refereeing system.

Gone is the notion that a single person dictates the rules of the game such as in soccer; since the soccer referee is limited in the number of demonstrably correct decisions he can make, his opinion controls many (or all) of the others. Introduce that, and it allows the players the leeway to influence how the referee perceives them, not just in cases of diving or play-acting, but how friendly a player might be to him before and during a match (and how convincing it is), even the players past transgressions in previous matches. Maybe the player wished him happy birthday after their last game… since a referee cannot make every decision with absolute certainty his fallibility (and hence his harassment) is guaranteed. American Football almost completely negates this with compartmentalisation.

So how could an American style of refereeing be translated to soccer? Personal fouls such as in American Football and Basketball would be unfeasible; there are many ways to punish players for misdemeanours, hoping to strike the balance between too harsh and too lenient in an attempt to get the players to play like gentlemen. But this is not advancing the game… adding more rules, different punishments is not seeking to act on the cause, but react to the symptoms. To advance the game, you need to eliminate the concept of the bad decision.

How about compartmentalising the refereeing of a soccer match with seven officials;

Referee

Infringement Referee

Linesmen

Offside Referee

Dugout Referee

Video Referee

The Referee’s purpose is to stay with the play as best he can and watch the game progress. His calls are for fouls on players on the ball. That is either with it in their posession, or in a challenge (two, maybe three players). Also, fouls such as handling and shirt pulling while one player is in possession. His eyes are on the ball and only those players who are immediately around it.

The Infringement Referee (either two on the sidelines or one at a distance from play, on the pitch) watches the general area of play. Which players are likely to receive the ball and which are likely to have an influence on future play (be they attacking or defending). His calls are for fouls off the ball, interference etc. He catches all of the play surrounding those immediately on the ball and signals what happened and who did it, to the referee after he blows his whistle.

Linesman work either side-line, keeping up with the last defender. When the ball is played forward by any player in the direction of the attacker and he is behing the last defender (applicable to the last touch of course), he raises his flag (pressing a button would be better) to send a signal to…

The Offside Referee. His role is what his name suggests, but it is more contextual than that of the Linesmen. He decides whether the last touch was by the attacking team and whether the player (or players) in the offside position is interfering in play. If he thinks he/they were, he signals to the Referee for offside who then blows his whistle.

The Video Referee’s job is to have the last 10 seconds of play buffered on computer screen. If a foul is given and not acted upon or he is asked to rule on a decision, he can rule quickly to the Referee.

Dugout Referee. This guy (or girl) organises substitutions by signalling to the Referee.

When the ball goes out, the Linesmen signal, the Referee rules on who touched it last. When there is a foul on the ball, the Referee rules. A foul off the ball, the Infringement Referee rules. Offside; the Offside Ref. Close penalty claim, the Referee either rules or plays on until he hears from the Video Referee. Play acting or a foul away from play? The Infringement Referee signals to the Video Referee who rules and tells the Referee when the ball goes out.

Players will not foul because they know they will get caught (or the odds of them getting away with it are so small as to make it not worth it).

Players will not play-act because they will always be found out.

Players will not fake injury because the will always be found out.

By compartmentalising the refereeing system, the concept of the bad decision is eliminated along with the subjectivity of decision making. Indeed the decisions made on the field immediately change from being a one-person human ruling to one of a logical consequence of player interaction.

People may be concerned that the game would stop more often however if the referee allows play on until the ball goes out of play then this should not be a noticeable effect. Add to that, remove all deliberate fouls and play-acting and the game should run more smoothly.

Even if it did not, I for one would still rather watch a stop-start game with everyone adhering to the laws and spirit of the game than what we have at the moment.

…in Premiership history.

The idea is simple; name the 10 greatest scorers of great goals. So not great goalscorers (though some are definitely that) or people who happened to score a great goal (though they definitely did that), but players who regularly scored great goals.

However it is not as easy as it sounds and some notable names did not make it into the list so if you disagree, please say so. But this is a Top 10 and sacrifices have to be made so without further ado, here they are.

Actually, just a little more ado… technically, this is a top 9. Much like the “debate” about who the best batsman of all time is in cricket is about who is number 2 to Donald Bradman, there should be no doubt as to who is number one in this list. Still, it’s always nice to reaffirm brilliance.

Ado over, here we go…

10. Matthew Taylor

Former Luton Town and now Portsmouth leftback is not a prolific scorer as his position would suggest, but you rarely see him scrambling the ball over the goal line. A regular entrant in Goal of the Month competitions, it is seldom a good idea as a defender to push him onto his left foot.

Here he is against Everton scoring from approximately the other side of the channel:
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.9. Anthony Yeboah
Ghana’s Yeboah played 62 times for Leeds scoring an impressive 33 goals many of which as a result of thrashing the ball so hard that no sane goalkeeper would try to save it – assuming he could get out of the way in time. His cannon of a right foot once struck a shot measuring 96mph.

Sadly, Yeboah left Leeds after a predictable conflict of personalities with George Graham. He remains to this day the only player ever to have won successive Goal of the Month competitions.

Here is Tony scoring the 1995/6 Goal of the Season against the team formerly known as “Wimbledon”:
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.8. Gianfranco Zola
A.k.a. Gorgon Zola, this minuscule, brilliant Italian delighted Chelsea fans for 229 appearances with his flair, touch and free kicks. The last of which were taught to him while at Napoli by Diego Maradona.

The man always played with a grin on his face and was inducted in to the English Football Hall of Fame in 2006.

Here he is scoring a goal against Norwich. If you have never seen this goal before you might miss the subtlety of it first time round. I am fairly sure that even Maradona didn’t teach him this:
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.7. David Ginola
Loved by Newcastle and Tottenham fans alike, Ginola was the ultimate conundrum; sporadic genius in attack, absolutely nothing whatsoever in defence. Given Tottenham’s lack of any sort of left back (i.e. Clive Wilson), it was amazing that he was ever allowed on the pitch. But the Tottenham fans love their flare players more than anything else and Ginola was a true hero in a time where they had little else to cheer.

Here he is against Charlton in the FA Cup. If you are a Tottenham fan, you already know what you are about to see:
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.6. Paolo di Canio
Strong advocate of fascist dictatorships and fan of Benito Mussolini (yes, the dead dictator, Nazi ally Mussolini), di Canio and controversy were not exactly passing strangers in the night. No reason to believe this should be why he settled in so well at West Ham and certainly the fans and players adored him. At least the black ones did until they realised he was a fascist.

Anyway, he could also score great goals such as the 1999/2000 Goal of the Season against the team formerly known as “Wimbledon”. Again:
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.5. Trevor Sinclair
If there was one player this list was made for – apart from the person at number one – it would be Trevor Sinclair. A winger who could play on both flanks, you never really sensed he was quite in the top bracket of players. He did however play in a World Cup (and far from disgraced himself) and while he wasn’t a prolific goalscorer, you can be sure that at least once a season you would hear the radio summariser say “and make sure to watch Match of the Day tonight for a simply magnificent Trevor Sinclair goal”.

Here is the 1996/7 Goal of the Season; one that ranks as a standard effort for Trevor:
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.4. Dennis Bergkamp
Nicknamed the “Iceman”, I don’t think anyone realised just how good he was until Bruce Rioch took him to Arsenal. Arguably the most influential signing in their history he was also one of the first genuine world class players to come to the Premiership for something other than a final pay day. His touch, vision and creativity at setting up other players (such as Ian Wright, Nicholas Anelka and Thierry Henry) as well as himself made him a joy to watch. If you were an Arsenal fan.

Here he is scoring the 2001/2 Goal of the Season against Newcastle with a move that I’ve only seen Romario try:
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.3. Thierry Henry
It is a great loss that he no longer adorns the Premiership. A player of near relativistic pace and a feather touch, he combines speed of body and mind with a creative eye for goal that only the best handful of players in any given era have. What is more, he seems like a genuinely nice guy and if his wife is strong enough, their offspring might play for England.

It is not the intention that the most prolific goalscorers should make this list and you could say that if you score enough goals that some are bound to be brilliant. But there are so many brilliant Henry goals that he simply has to be included even though he is so much more than a scorer of great goals.

I suppose his 2002/3 Goal of the Season should be show however I do not believe it was his best coming as it did against a poor Tottenham side. Instead, witness this… absurdity against Manchester United. Fare thee well, Thierry:

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.2. Eric Cantona
The ultimate talisman and a Frenchman almost literally dripping with flair. Like Number 7 David Ginola, he was largely shunned by the national team to their detriment and the Premiership’s gain.
Still referred to in half of Manchester and much of London as “The King” he almost defined the New Premiership product as one of excitement, flair and thrills set against the fading memory of the uncouth, brash and physical First Division.

Along with Sir Alex Ferguson he was a major catalyst behind the installation of Manchester United as the predominant force in English football and at his best, he was the master of the timely and unexpected.

A genuinely showman the delight in watching Cantona was knowing that those most rare of moments – the ones where what happens on the field takes such a break from your expectation – could happen at any time.Here he is scoring against Sunderland after a poor run of form. His regal celebration befitting the man:
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.And there we are; the Top 9 as promised because as I said we all know who’s coming next. Indeed I don’t even feel the need to give his name. An attacking midfielder who regularly scored over 20 goals a season he turned down moves to AC Milan, Chelsea and Tottenham (the day before it was to be announced).

He never fulfilled his incredible talent for England in an era when other nations might have built a team round him. He drifted in and out of games for his club but no matter how quiet, he was always prone to making the loudest of noises by the end.

He was equally footed – something rare even today – and utterly lethal with a dead ball. Indeed from the penalty spot he scored an astonishing 48 out of 49 in his career (take a bow Mark Crossley).

Even towards the end of his career he still had the capacity to amaze and score when the game had seemed over although nothing matched his 1993/4 season when he scored 30 goals for a struggling team.

But perhaps most amazing – and endearing – of all was that every single one of his 540 appearances (and 209 goals) were for Southampton.

A true one-club man and undoubtedly Southampton’s greatest ever player. The man who possesses surely the greatest highlight reel in all of footballing history whose ability made you truly believe that the impossible was about to happen.

I give you, the Greatest Scorer of Great Goals,

1. “le God”